Don't Vote Labour Again (Part 18)
The sorry saga of the Chagos Islands continues
On November 10th, the Mauritian general election was held and a new Prime Minister elected. In a landslide victory, Navin Ramgoolam took over from Pravind Jugnauth.
The election had effectively been a referendum on the Chagos Islands deal drawn up with the UK on October 3rd. Ramgoolam and others had been critical of the arrangement, disagreeing with the 99 year lease of the Diego Garcia base. By calling the election, Jugnauth was trying to secure a mandate on it, and capitalise on what he considered a good deal securing large sums of money for Mauritius.
The amounts had been kept secret, but on December 29th, The Sunday Times revealed it would include £800 million per year over the Diego Garcia lease period. Over 99 years this would be £79.2 billion. To put this in perspective, Mauritius only has a GDP of £11.3 billion (2023). We would be paying 6.2% of their GDP per year, and 6 times their GDP over 99 years. It would be paid out of Ministry of Defence funds, at a time when our armed forces are poorly financed as it is. On top of this sum there would be 'reparations' as well.
Jugnauth's administration had other problems. Illegal recordings of many phone calls featuring public figures and politicians had been leaked (some claim they were AI fakes). Fearing the impact on an election result, Jugnauth had ordered a social media ban for the election period. It seems Mauritian closeness with China has given them authoritarian ideas of their own. There was massive backlash against this and the government had to cancel the ban. An oil spill in 2020 had also caused problems for the Mauritian environment and economy, leading to protests.
There were other factors, then, but the loss of the election can still be read as a rejection of the deal. Indeed, on December 20th, Ramgoolam said to Mauritian MPs he could not support the arrangement as it currently stood. The deal, he said, "would not produce the benefits that the nation could expect". 'Benefits' from getting a free set of islands? Do you get a gift from someone, then claim extra money so you can use that gift? His deputy Prime Minister, Paul Berrenger, said:
...not only is it [about] our sovereignty. There are some things you can't accept if you're a true patriot. They are trying to make us sign and they are quibbling about a small amount.
£79.2 billion is a ‘small amount’?!
Addressing Parliament Berenger announced Mauritius required "money to get out of the economic mess the previous government got us into, but not at any price, not under any conditions".
Ramgoolam has made mysterious "counter proposals" which will probably involve a shorter lease, larger sums of money and probably the designer shirt off Starmer's back.
In a bizarre twist on December 20th, the Maldives put in a claim to the Islands. A formal letter was sent to the British by President Mohamed Muizzu . Muizzu has said: "The ancient writings of our sultans show that the Chagos are more connected to the Maldives than to any other nation". Anyone else? Sri Lanka? Seychelles? Madagascar? France again? Clearly the developing world has sensed a weak UK government that can be taken to the cleaners. It doesn't bode well for our other overseas territories.
We don't know what terms Muizzu asked of Starmer, because the letter’s contents are being kept secret. The Maldives are 665 miles away from the Chagos Islands, compared to the 1,440 miles from Mauritius. The previous President had supported the Mauritian claim in 2022, amid much domestic controversy. The Maldives have had contradictory polices on the islands since the 1990s. If the Mauritians get what they want, the Maldives might fall out with them, causing regional tensions .
When you mix these factors with President Trump assuming the Presidency in less than a month's time, there is a perfect storm coming for Starmer and Lammy. Trump will not want a shortening of the lease or any restrictions on the base's operation. On top of this, being an Anglophile and a China hawk, he apparently does not approve of Britain's weak handling of Mauritius. Farage has been keeping him primed against the deal, realising it is a major Achilles heel for the government and that giving the territory away will stick in the craws of many British voters. Labour and Jugnauth had likely been trying to push the deal through before Trump got into office, knowing that the orange deal-enthusiast would intervene. In his speech to MPs, Ramgoolam claimed this was indeed the case.
Starmer and Lammy, the duo of duds, will be pressed from all sides; at home, by Mauritius; by the Chagossians who feel left out of the loop; by the Maldives; and by America. It would not be the first time that a foreign policy disaster or humiliation has been the end of a British government.
My advice to Starmer would be this: unless you want your party out of government, if you value this country and its people at all, you must walk away. Tell the Chinese puppets in Mauritius the deal is off, and we will keep the islands - with a view to letting the Chagossian people have an independent country somewhere down the line. If Mauritius don't like it, let them attempt a Galtieri against two major military powers. Just because we were tough colonisers in the past, it doesn't mean we have to be a doormat for any piddling tin pot nation that tries its luck. We must be firm but fair, and proud of that flag that still flies in far-flung places.