At 2.15 AM on October 26th 2024, an inebriated Labour MP quite seriously assaulted a man in the street. It occurred in Frodsham in Cheshire, in Mike Amesbury's constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. Amesbury had held the seat since 2019. This was no tipsy scuffle - he threw a sucker punch that knocked his victim, Paul Fellows, to the floor, then continued to rain down five punches on the prone man. He was then dragged off Fellows by passers-by, then staggered away repeatedly announcing: "you won't threaten the MP ever again, will ya?".
Unfortunately for Amesbury, the whole incident was caught on camera and had gone viral before his hangover had cleared. He soon had the whip removed and over a week later, on November 7th, he was charged. In the magistrates court he pled guilty (quitting Labour that day) and was sentenced to ten weeks in prison on February 24th. However, in an outrageous turn on February 27th, he was given a suspended sentence on appeal. This means he has not gone to prison, and will only be incarcerated if he breaks the terms of that sentence or commits another crime within two years.
Ironically, Amesbury had condemned "thugs and criminals" during the 2024 riots. The Home Office posted on X: "Put simply: if you engage in violent protests, you will face the full force of the law". Amesbury reposted this writing: "For the thugs and criminals, see what to expect below". To many, it does not seem that he has faced the same for his own violent thuggery. It's the 'lightly slapped wrist of the law'. There are so-called rioters locked up for years merely for shouting and gesturing. If the establishment wants us to believe there is no two tier justice, then they're not going the right away about it.
An MP cannot be automatically removed from Parliament unless they are sentenced to over a year in prison. If they are convicted of a crime, it is up to their constituents to remove them through a recall petition. This needs to be signed by 10% of the constituency's electorate. In the end it was not required because Amesbury stepped down as an MP and a by-election was triggered, thought to be scheduled for May 1st.
Because of legislation dating from 1624, an MP cannot technically resign. A change was made in 1680 requiring an MP to stand down if they took a royal appointment, because their impartiality and loyalty to Parliament could be compromised. Ever since, a quaint loophole has existed whereby MPs that wish to resign are given a made-up job with the Crown. Nowadays it is either 'Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds', which Amesbury was given, or 'Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead'.
In fairness, Amesbury has shown contrition and admitted that it was "a nightmare I created". He said when he sees the video "it's me, but I don't recognise myself and I find it quite traumatic". He claims he was on edge because of the febrile atmosphere around the winter fuel allowance cuts, and also because he'd had a recent stalker. I suppose we've all had drunken altercations in our time, physical or verbal, but we're not legislators in the national Parliament.
Neither was this an act of self defence, which you could argue the famous John Prescott incident was. Prescott (RIP) was assaulted that time in 2001 and for all he knew it was not a mere egg that had struck him. He responded in the way you'd expect a working class ship steward to respond to a threat. Amesbury does claim he's had long-term depression, anxiety and mental health issues, and wrote about this in 2014; but I think this is a bit of a sob story for the sympathetic media tour.
Another curious incident in Amesbury's career was when he seemed to share a very anti-Semitic meme on his Facebook account. It was shared in 2013 before he became an MP, and came to light in 2019. This really was anti-Semitic, of a hideous Jewish caricature wearing a Santa hat with the caption: "Remember to support the banks and corporations this Christmas in their continued efforts to enslave mankind" (along with a web address for an 'Illuminati' site). At first Amesbury denied it on Twitter, trying to make out it was a faked post. When someone found it was live on his Facebook, he then claimed he "didn't recall" sharing it and apologised for the error. It's possible he was hacked of course, or it was entirely accidental - but perhaps there was another reason he didn't remember...
Labour's pick to replace Amesbury is Karen Shore, a local councillor, and former deputy council leader (Cheshire West and Chester). She has been criticised for some weapons grade hypocrisy. In 2021 she celebrated so-called refugees being 'welcomed' into the local authority.
Cheshire West and Chester has been warmly welcoming refugee families for many years. The Council and our partners have a proven system that has already supported many people, including Syrian refugee families, to integrate successfully into their new lives and make a valuable contribution to our communities... The Council and our partners have been overwhelmed with donations and offers of support to refugee families. Once again, the people of West Cheshire have shown huge compassion towards those in need
Now that she's running for Parliament however, and Reform are polled to win the seat by a 3% margin, she has changed her tune.
The last government left behind a broken asylum system, with millions being spent on hotels... Labour is fixing the mess and has already removed over 19,000 people who shouldn’t be here. I’ll campaign to close the local asylum hotel. Sign my petition here.
As Groucho Marx famously said, "these are my principles, and if you don't like them, I have others".
Reform announced their candidate on March 24th. Sarah Pochin is also a former local councillor, having served on Cheshire East council for the Conservatives, taking on the role of mayor for a year. She was also a magistrate. She doesn't seem like an especially charismatic pick - perhaps Nigel doesn't want these - and as mayor she went to a 'refugees welcome' event in 2022. That's another thing she's got in common with Mrs Shore. She posted this on Facebook:
Pleasure to attend the Refugees Welcome event in Macclesfield this afternoon with Syrian and Afghan families that have settled in Cheshire East
Now, as mayor you have to go through the motions and do as you're told. We can't blame Pochin too much for performing this official duty (unless she truly believed in it). However, it hardly bodes well in an election where 'refugees' will be a major issue - and she's in the party that is supposed to be tough on the asylum issue. Reform tried to play the 'genuine Ukrainian refugee' angle, implying Pochin was championing them alone; but as you can see she specifically mentioned Syrians and Afghans. GB News changed a headline on the story, as if they had been nobbled by Nigel.
As said, Reform are polled to win, and I believe they will. I am torn on this one, because on one hand I know Reform is the only party that can win the seat from Labour. On the other I am quite disenchanted after the Rupert Lowe situation, in which Farage and Yusuf were the worst offenders. I am not very confident in anyone that Farage and Yusuf select as a candidate, especially a Tory who is jumping ship.
There were 29 such defectors paraded the other week, ranging from your basic Tory quitters to a Lib Dem, a dissident socialist and someone who appears to be a Bangladeshi nationalist. If Reform picks a good candidate with a mind of their own, then how long can they last before they get on the wrong side of their leader? Reform winning would be way more preferable than Labour winning, and we'll have to live with it, and simply hope Pochin serves her constituents well.
It's very unlikely any Lowe-Habib party could get going in time. Habib has taken over the ‘Integrity’ party but it’s very early days. The SDP are standing, but with all due respect they'll be lucky to get a thousand votes. They will however contribute to the drag on Labour's vote, which will also come from the Greens, Lib Dems, the Workers Party of Britain and perhaps the independent. You'll notice I didn't even mention the Conservatives...
However you feel about the situation within Reform at the moment - or indeed however you feel about Labour's governmental performance and the oppositional leadership of Kemi Badenoch - it is fair to say that this by-election will be interesting to watch.